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RBA

Today

Treasury says a deterioration in the labour market may force cautious households to save rather than spend looming tax cuts.

Treasury expects unemployment to climb to 4.5pc by this time next year

Sluggish hiring could lead cautious households already grappling with higher interest rates to save rather than spend the windfall from tax cuts.

  • 4 mins ago
  • Michael Read
Joshua Phipps, owner of a wholesale blinds and shutter company in Sydney’s west, says he cannot afford wage increases in the current economic environment.

Real wages forecast to grow by 0.5pc a year

Workers will enjoy substantial real wage growth for the next three years, according to Treasury, even as pay and inflation forecasts clash with the Reserve Bank.

  • 15 mins ago
  • David Marin-Guzman
Rising interest rates and power prices mean Adam and Erin Foster’s dream of buying their first home keeps “slipping through the fingers”.

$300 off every household’s power bill in cost-of-living cash splash

In addition to a tax cut from July 1, every household will receive an electricity bill rebate as part of a $7.8 billion cost-of-living package.

  • 15 mins ago
  • Ronald Mizen and Maxim Shanahan

$24b in front-loaded spending risks fuelling inflation

Spending and taxing decisions in this budget will tip an extra $24 billion into the economy, jarring with the government’s claims that it is putting downward pressure on inflation.

  • 15 mins ago
  • John Kehoe

Yesterday

Treasurer Jim Chalmers and RBA governor Michele Bullock.

Budget handouts put interest rate cuts further out of reach

Economists have warned handouts that bring down bills will not rein in underlying inflation, undermining the government’s message that its budget will help the Reserve Bank.

  • Updated
  • Michael Read
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Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers will hand down his third budget on Tuesday.

Rate rise still priced in despite Chalmers’ ‘optimistic’ forecasts

Bond markets are continuing to bet that the RBA will have to lift rates this year, despite new government forecasts predicting inflation will fall faster than the central bank expects.

  • Updated
  • Alex Gluyas
The Albanese government does not respond strategically to workers wefare.

On his third budget, Chalmernomics has finally emerged

The Albanese-Chalmers government embodies a short-term and emotive response to wage stagnation, not a rational one.

  • Stephen Anthony
The figure, known as the ‘table of truth’, cuts through the spin and shows how the treasurer’s saving and spending decisions affect the bottom-line.

The little-known budget figure you should care about

The figure, known as the ‘table of truth’, cuts through the spin and shows how the treasurer’s saving and spending decisions affect the bottom line.

  • Michael Read

This Month

A regulatory threat is hanging over the buy now, pay later innovation that made Nick Molnar and Anthony Eisen, billionaires.

Payments innovation under threat from RBA

Buy now, pay later, which revolutionised Australia’s highly concentrated payments system, is under potential threat from increased regulation.

  • Tony Boyd
Markets are expecting restraint from the federal budget as the government tries to balance its response to the cost of living with the need to lower inflation.

Markets on edge ahead of budget cash splash

Australian shares are set to edge lower on Monday as they wait to assess the impact of federal budget spending on the central bank’s path to an interest rate cut.

  • Cecile Lefort
Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor.

Coalition warns Labor over RBA board ‘sack and stack’

The implication is Labor would seek to appoint board members inclined to lower interest rates ahead of the federal election, risking the push to curb high inflation.

  • Ronald Mizen and Michael Read
Bond manager Angus Coote says another rate hike would send Australia deeper into recession.

Forget the hawks, the RBA’s next rate move will be lower

In my over 20 years in financial markets, I’ve never seen such a wide dispersion of views on interest rates as we currently have in Australia – we are at a pivotal moment in monetary policy.

  • Angus Coote
Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher discuss the budget

Labor to spend $11.3b on social housing

The new package to be detailed in the budget aims to enable states and territories to combat homelessness and repair social housing.

  • Updated
  • Phillip Coorey
RBA governor Michele Bullock’s communications style is proving successful – so far.

Michele Bullock’s run of good news may be about to end

RBA governor Michele Bullock has proven a better communicator than her predecessor Philip Lowe. But her real test may still be yet to come.

  • Ronald Mizen
RBA governor Michele Bullock revealed “the board did discuss the option of raising interest rates”.

RBA’s credibility at risk as central banks confront interference

The contradictions in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s communications reveal policy conflicts that could erode its already embattled credibility.

  • Christopher Joye
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Apartments for rent in the West Village neighbourhood of New York.

Why Australia’s long-suffering renters are not alone

Rents are soaring not only in Australia but also in the US, UK and Canada, preventing inflation from declining closer to central banks’ targeted levels.

  • Swati Pandey, Irina Anghel and Enda Curran
Investment in business is expected to  slow down in the near term.

Budget tips business investment to slow

The recovery in business investment is tipped to slow markedly in federal budget forecasts, as a cooling economy forces firms to reassess capital expenditure plans.

  • John Kehoe and Michael Read
CBA and its rivals have reported strong demand for credit from businesses, a sign of strength in the economy.

Business loan demand spikes, keeping inflation fears alive

CBA, the country’s largest lender, says a strong labour market is driving “robust” demand from companies, which could push up prices, economists warn.

  • James Eyers and Lucas Baird
Officials met with more than 100 investors across five continents to sell its first green bond.

Investors are set to pile into Australia’s first green bond

European fund managers are backing the federal government’s plans to shed its reputation as a coal polluter, with its $7 billion bond looking well oversubscribed.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
Treasurer Jim Chalmers and RBA governor Michele Bullock.

The budget is already adding to inflation

The federal budget has injected $22 billion of new policy spending over two years, which economists say will cause higher interest rates than necessary and delay any rate cuts.

  • John Kehoe