This Month
- Opinion
- Interest rates
RBA caught in political spin
Political considerations may explain the central bank’s unusual cheerleading of the federal budget.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
RBA’s credibility at risk as central banks confront interference
The contradictions in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s communications reveal policy conflicts that could erode its already embattled credibility.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Central bank independence is dead
Politicians are compromising central banks’ commitments to price stability targets, and the ensuing sticky inflation will require a much tougher cost of capital to extinguish.
April
- Opinion
- Inflation
You heard right – the RBA could raise rates again
The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely be forced to warn that it could raise rates again.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Business bankruptcies are at a 25-year high and that’s very bad news
In total, 1131 businesses went bust in the month, which was the largest number since ASIC started collecting these statistics in 1999.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Inflation shocks bond bandits
The spike in US inflation has caught equity and debt investors napping.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Next US inflation print could make or break 2024
Investors in aggressively long equities, real estate, junk bonds and private debt have been fervently punting on the likelihood of deep rate cuts this year to bail them out of a heavy procyclical slump.
March
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Central banks may be repeating their pandemic errors
Central banks delayed rate increases after the pandemic on the basis they could not forecast the future, but now use rubbery projections to rationalise rate cuts.
- Updated
- Opinion
- Inflation
Inflation risks unravelling the rally
While the “everything” rally has excited risk junkies, inflation might spoil the party again.
- Updated
- Opinion
- Income tax
Talented people make nations pay for high taxes
The best and brightest minds globally are fleeing high-tax regimes for jurisdictions offering financial incentives.
February
- Opinion
- Bonds
Macquarie secures record demand for bonds
Investors are retreating from illiquid assets in favour of high-yielding bank bonds.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Where mortgage stress is on the rise
For all the back-slapping about the absence of a recession and assuredness around a soft landing, this cycle is not yet over.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Delays in rate relief highlight uncertainty
Markets are once again being forced to defer the timing of the first interest rate cuts.
January
- Opinion
- Investing
Why you should ‘nowcast’ to get the best returns
The key to investment success is focusing on optimising the present rather than big speculative bets.
- Opinion
- Inflation
This is what’s got to change before rates are cut
A stubbornly high inflation measure could scupper hopes of early interest rate relief.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Sticky inflation in America signals risks
The latest US inflation data calls into question market expectations for heavy interest rate cuts this year.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Volatility brings opportunity in bonds
Bond issuers’ nervousness about the acute macroeconomic and geopolitical risks has resulted in a flood of supply in the first week of 2024.
December 2023
- Opinion
- Property market
Future for house prices hinges on what the RBA does next
As we move into the new year, the bellwether markets of Melbourne and Sydney are falling.
- Opinion
- Investing
Why you should be sceptical of the market rally
Investors are ignoring geopolitical risks and have swallowed the “immaculate disinflation” thesis hook, line and sinker.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
New Zealand’s recession is a warning for the rest of world
While markets are rejoicing about the prospect of lower interest rates next year, stagflation across the ditch points to very different possibilities.
