Opinion
Why this is the most confounding budget of recent times
How well did Jim Chalmers do on Tuesday night? A whole lot better than he could have. And a whole lot worse, too.
Steven HamiltonEconomistAssessing the quality of government budgets can be a tricky business.
This is mostly due to what statistician Don Rubin called the “fundamental problem of causal inference”: in assessing the effect of an action, you will never observe what would have happened in the absence of that action. So, how much of an outcome is due to the action and how much to chance?
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