Economic Outlook

  • Brakes on despite export boom

    The economy is slowing - and pretty sharply too if the recent indicators of demand and activity are any guide.

  • Measuring up to the squeeze

    Australia's finance and insurance sector could contract for the first time since the early 1990s as a result of the global industry shake-out and weaker demand for credit in Australia.

  • A paradigm shift does not portend the beginning of a bear cycle

    Commodity markets are at a tipping point

  • Poach turns to shove for banks

    Australian banks and stockbrokers have so far resisted widespread downsizing, but some believe it might only be a matter of time before the pace of job cuts accelerates as they adjust to the deepening global financial crisis.

  • Expansion uncertain as confidence falls

    Australia's top economists warn the business investment boom is running out of steam as plummeting confidence, tighter lending conditions and weaker domestic demand force companies to scale back plans.

  • Long spell of subdued growth due

    Australian retailers are facing the most prolonged period of subdued retail spending growth since the 1991 recession as consumer sentiment plumbs 16-year lows.

  • Interest rates in works

    Tight labour market conditions may convince the Reserve Bank of Australia to delay any cut to official interest rates, even as evidence of a significant slowdown in the economy continues to mount.

  • Parity in Aussie's reach thanks to commodities

    Australia's leading economists are betting a terms-of-trade bonanza will keep the Australian dollar nipping at the heels of parity with its US counterpart.

  • Muddling through the gloom

    The official stats say the US recession is really just a state of mind, but many battered American consumers feel like the economy is in depression.

  • Good news while resources hunger lasts

    In a world economy under threat from a credit crisis in the US, the ongoing strength of the Chinese economy has never been more important to Australia; to its resources boom, its terms of trade, its economic growth and to the Australian dollar.

  • Trimming the sails for recession

    At the beginning of the year, many commentators were asking whether New Zealand would finally slide into recession, dragged down by deliberately tight domestic monetary conditions, additional tightening brought about by tensions in global financial markets, surging energy prices and drought

  • Oil 'choke point' lone bright spot

    Adding some optimism to the oil price outlook are projections from the International Energy Agency suggesting a belated lift in oil supplies next year.

  • Underlying strength is worthy of a second look

    At first blush, Japan's economic indicators don't look good.

  • The only surprise would be the absence of doom

    Faltering business spending, a locked-down household sector and volatile equity markets have triggered a steep decline in economic growth, ushering in a subdued financial year in which both the Australian dollar and world oil prices are expected to retreat from recent highs.

  • Falling demand puts pressure on RBA

    The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep official interest rates steady over the next six months, but there is heightened speculation the central bank could move to ease monetary policy earlier amid concerns about deteriorating economic growth.

  • No light at end of the price tunnel yet

    Inflation pressures have probably peaked in Australia, but underlying inflation will stay uncomfortably high in the coming year, according to the latest survey of economists

  • Cycle will turn after year of slow growth

    Economic growth across Asia is tipped to continue to decelerate for at least the coming 12 months but pick up in 2010 as the cycle turns.

  • Inflation, contraction a threat

    Like a tsunami, earth-shaking events elsewhere have created a wave of pessimism that is threatening to drive the European economy into a much more painful correction than any of the official forecasts thought possible just weeks ago.

  • Oil's virtuous circle of good fortune

    It has been called the greatest wealth transfer in history - from oil-deficit countries to the oil exporters of the Middle East and Central Asia.

  • Dousing might just deliver

    Farmers will be anxiously checking skies in coming weeks as rainfall determines whether the grains industry can meet forecasts for a big rebound in production following last year's drought.

  • Expansion's problematic twin

    Hero or villain? The commodities boom has delivered a once in a generation windfall for Australia's mining and energy industries but the good fortune has come at the cost of fuelling the resurgent inflation pulsing through the economy.

  • Captain's keeping his nerve despite rising seas

    Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens was installed into, arguably, the second most important job in the country on September 18, 2006, after 26 years of diligent climbing up the central bank's bureaucratic ladder.

back to top

RTC model

The US appears to be putting its houses - Fannie and Freddie - in order, writes Glenn Mumford.